Southampton F.C.vs
Newcastle United F.C.Southampton F.C. 1-3 Newcastle United F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier League 2024-2025Sat, 25 Jan 2025 15:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Newcastle United F.C.58%
- Southampton F.C. 20%
- Draw 22%
- Newcastle United F.C. 58%
The de-vigged market number is a PRO feature — free to start, PRO unlocks it.
Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Newcastle United F.C., rating it at 58.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Southampton F.C. won none of them. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 21.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Southampton F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Southampton F.C.: DWLWL
Newcastle United F.C.: WWDDL
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 8Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | Southampton F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. | 1–3 |
| 2024-08-17 | Newcastle United F.C. vs Southampton F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2023-04-30 | Newcastle vs Southampton | 3–1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Southampton vs Newcastle | 1–4 |
| 2022-03-10 | Southampton vs Newcastle | 1–2 |
| 2021-08-28 | Newcastle vs Southampton | 2–2 |
| 2021-02-06 | Newcastle vs Southampton | 3–2 |
| 2020-11-06 | Southampton vs Newcastle | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Southampton F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Newcastle United F.C. (58% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Southampton F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 25 Jan 2025 15:00 GMT — English Premier League 2024-2025.
- What is the Southampton F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.