Almeriavs
AlavesAlmeria 0-3 Alaves — Result, H2H & Form
La Liga 2023-2024Fri, 26 Jan 2024 20:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Almeria42%
- Almeria 42%
- Draw 24%
- Alaves 34%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Almeria, rating it at 42.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Almeria won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 42.1% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 24.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Almeria: LLWWW
Alaves: WDWDW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-26 | Almeria vs Alaves | 0–3 |
| 2023-11-05 | Alaves vs Almeria | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Almeria vs Alaves?
- Tofiko's model favours Almeria (42% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Almeria vs Alaves kick off?
- Fri, 26 Jan 2024 20:00 GMT — La Liga 2023-2024.
- What is the Almeria vs Alaves head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.