AC Milanvs
US LecceAC Milan vs US Lecce Prediction, H2H & Stats
Italian Serie ASun, 20 Sep 2026 18:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs AC Milan68%
- AC Milan 68%
- Draw 22%
- US Lecce 10%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick AC Milan, rating it at 68.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and AC Milan won 6 of 8, with 2 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 22.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
AC Milan: DLWLL
US Lecce: WDLWW
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 38%Both scored
- 63%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | AC Milan vs US Lecce | 1–0 |
| 2025-08-29 | US Lecce vs AC Milan | 0–2 |
| 2025-03-08 | US Lecce vs AC Milan | 2–3 |
| 2024-09-27 | AC Milan vs US Lecce | 3–0 |
| 2024-04-06 | AC Milan vs Lecce | 3–0 |
| 2023-11-11 | Lecce vs AC Milan | 2–2 |
| 2023-04-23 | AC Milan vs Lecce | 2–0 |
| 2023-01-14 | Lecce vs AC Milan | 2–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win AC Milan vs US Lecce?
- Tofiko's model favours AC Milan (68% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does AC Milan vs US Lecce kick off?
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 18:45 GMT — Italian Serie A.
- What is the AC Milan vs US Lecce head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.