US Sassuolo Calciovs
AC MilanUS Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan Prediction, H2H & Stats
Italian Serie ASun, 11 Oct 2026 16:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs AC Milan52%
- US Sassuolo Calcio 23%
- Draw 25%
- AC Milan 52%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick AC Milan, rating it at 51.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and US Sassuolo Calcio won 4 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. US Sassuolo Calcio's last 5 produced 31 goals — 6.2 per game; they scored in 2 of them and conceded in 4. AC Milan's 5 produced 17, at 3.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- US Sassuolo Calcio's games are very high-scoring at 6.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
US Sassuolo Calcio: DLWWL
AC Milan: DLWLL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.30Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan | 2–0 |
| 2025-12-14 | AC Milan vs US Sassuolo Calcio | 2–2 |
| 2024-04-14 | US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan | 3–3 |
| 2023-12-30 | AC Milan vs US Sassuolo Calcio | 1–0 |
| 2023-01-29 | AC Milan vs US Sassuolo Calcio | 2–5 |
| 2022-08-30 | US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan | 0–0 |
| 2022-05-22 | US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan | 0–3 |
| 2021-11-28 | AC Milan vs US Sassuolo Calcio | 1–3 |
| 2021-04-21 | AC Milan vs US Sassuolo Calcio | 1–2 |
| 2020-12-20 | US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan | 1–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan?
- Tofiko's model favours AC Milan (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 16:30 GMT — Italian Serie A.
- What is the US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 2 home wins, 3 draws, 5 away wins, averaging 3.30 goals per game.