Burnley F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Burnley F.C. vs Derby County F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipSat, 19 Sep 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Burnley F.C.40%
- Burnley F.C. 40%
- Draw 26%
- Derby County F.C. 34%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Burnley F.C., rating it at 39.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The model puts the draw at 26.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Burnley F.C.: LDLLD
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Burnley F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Burnley F.C. (40% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Burnley F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL Championship.