Coventry Cityvs
Derby County F.C.Coventry City vs Derby County F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipFri, 03 Apr 2026 19:00 GMTStatus: finished
Final: Coventry City 3–2 Derby County F.C.
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Coventry City62%
- Coventry City 62%
- Draw 20%
- Derby County F.C. 18%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Coventry City, rating it at 61.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Coventry City won all of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 61.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 19.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Coventry City: DLWWW
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 6.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Coventry City vs Derby County F.C. | 3–2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Derby County F.C. vs Coventry City | 3–5 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Coventry City vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Coventry City (62% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Coventry City vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Fri, 03 Apr 2026 19:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Coventry City vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 6.50 goals per game.