Derby County F.C.vs
Cardiff City F.C.Derby County F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipSat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Cardiff City F.C.49%
- Derby County F.C. 26%
- Draw 24%
- Cardiff City F.C. 49%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Cardiff City F.C., rating it at 49.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
They arrive from very different football. Cardiff City F.C.'s last 5 produced 33 goals — 6.6 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Cardiff City F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 6.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
Cardiff City F.C.: WWWLL
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Cardiff City F.C. (49% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL Championship.