Derby County F.C.vs
Oxford United F.C.Derby County F.C. 1-0 Oxford United F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipSat, 18 Apr 2026 11:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.55%
- Derby County F.C. 55%
- Draw 23%
- Oxford United F.C. 21%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 55.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Derby County F.C. won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 55.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 23.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026.
Derby County F.C.: LDLLD
Oxford United F.C.: WDLWW
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 1.00Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 0%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Derby County F.C. vs Oxford United F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Oxford United F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Oxford United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (55% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Oxford United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 18 Apr 2026 11:30 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Derby County F.C. vs Oxford United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 1.00 goals per game.