West Ham United F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.West Ham United F.C. 3-0 Derby County F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipSat, 05 Sep 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs West Ham United F.C.43%
- West Ham United F.C. 43%
- Draw 23%
- Derby County F.C. 34%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick West Ham United F.C., rating it at 43.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met once, and West Ham United F.C. won it. One game is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 43.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. West Ham United F.C.'s last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 22.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- West Ham United F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 14 Sep 2026.
West Ham United F.C.: WWWWD
Derby County F.C.: LLLWL
Head-to-head
As of 14 Sep 2026.
- 1Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | West Ham United F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 3–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win West Ham United F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours West Ham United F.C. (43% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does West Ham United F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the West Ham United F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 1 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.