Gillinghamvs
Newport County A.F.C.Gillingham vs Newport County A.F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL League TwoSat, 03 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Gillingham48%
- Gillingham 48%
- Draw 26%
- Newport County A.F.C. 26%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Gillingham, rating it at 48.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Gillingham won all of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 48.1% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Gillingham: WWLWW
Newport County A.F.C.: LWLDL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 4.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Gillingham vs Newport County A.F.C. | 3–2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newport County A.F.C. vs Gillingham | 1–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Gillingham vs Newport County A.F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Gillingham (48% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Gillingham vs Newport County A.F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 03 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL League Two.
- What is the Gillingham vs Newport County A.F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.50 goals per game.