Newcastle United F.C.vs
Manchester City F.C.Newcastle United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 26 Dec 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Manchester City F.C.58%
- Newcastle United F.C. 18%
- Draw 24%
- Manchester City F.C. 58%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Manchester City F.C., rating it at 58.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Newcastle United F.C. won 1 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 23.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Newcastle United F.C.: LDWLW
Manchester City F.C.: DLDWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Manchester City F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Newcastle United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Manchester City F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. | 4–0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Newcastle United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2024-01-13 | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 2–3 |
| 2023-08-19 | Manchester City vs Newcastle | 1–0 |
| 2023-03-04 | Manchester City vs Newcastle | 2–0 |
| 2022-08-21 | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 3–3 |
| 2022-05-08 | Manchester City vs Newcastle | 5–0 |
| 2021-12-19 | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 0–4 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Newcastle United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Manchester City F.C. (58% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Newcastle United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 26 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Newcastle United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 6 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.