FC Aroucavs
Rio Ave F.C.FC Arouca vs Rio Ave F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 29 Nov 2026 15:59 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Arouca55%
- FC Arouca 55%
- Draw 26%
- Rio Ave F.C. 19%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 54.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 9 times, and FC Arouca won 1 of 9, with 4 drawn. Across 9 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Rio Ave F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. FC Arouca's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 26.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Rio Ave F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Arouca: WLDDL
Rio Ave F.C.: WWDWW
Head-to-head
- 9Games
- 2.56Avg goals
- 56%Both scored
- 44%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Rio Ave F.C. vs FC Arouca | 2–1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Rio Ave F.C. vs FC Arouca | 0–3 |
| 2025-08-23 | FC Arouca vs Rio Ave F.C. | 3–3 |
| 2025-02-10 | FC Arouca vs Rio Ave FC | 1–1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Rio Ave FC vs FC Arouca | 1–0 |
| 2024-04-19 | Rio Ave vs FC Arouca | 1–1 |
| 2023-12-10 | FC Arouca vs Rio Ave | 2–2 |
| 2023-04-28 | Rio Ave vs FC Arouca | 1–0 |
| 2022-11-12 | FC Arouca vs Rio Ave | 0–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs Rio Ave F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (55% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs Rio Ave F.C. kick off?
- Sun, 29 Nov 2026 15:59 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs Rio Ave F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 9 meetings: 3 home wins, 4 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.56 goals per game.