Borussia Dortmundvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 28 Nov 2026 14:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Borussia Dortmund49%
- Borussia Dortmund 49%
- Draw 26%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 26%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Borussia Dortmund, rating it at 48.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Borussia Dortmund won 5 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 2. Borussia Dortmund's 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund: WDLWW
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WWWWD
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.60Avg goals
- 70%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0–1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | 1–2 |
| 2025-05-11 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2–3 |
| 2024-04-21 | Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | 1–1 |
| 2023-01-29 | Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2022-08-06 | Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | 1–0 |
| 2022-02-06 | Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–5 |
| 2021-09-11 | Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | 3–4 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
- Tofiko's model favours Borussia Dortmund (49% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen kick off?
- Sat, 28 Nov 2026 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 1 home wins, 2 draws, 7 away wins, averaging 3.60 goals per game.