Athletic Bilbaovs
Rayo VallecanoAthletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, H2H & Form
La LigaSun, 30 May 2027 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
Athletic Bilbao or draw78%
1X2: model backs Athletic Bilbao at 46% — under 50%, so the pick covers the draw too.
- Athletic Bilbao
- Draw
- Rayo Vallecano
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Athletic Bilbao or draw78%
- Draw or Rayo Vallecano54%
- Athletic Bilbao or Rayo Vallecano68%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.536%
- Under 2.564%
Both teams to score
- Athletic Bilbao, last 10 home games6 of 10
- Rayo Vallecano, last 10 away games8 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (380 games)56%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Athletic Bilbao, rating it at 45.8% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Athletic Bilbao won 7 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
They arrive from very different football. Rayo Vallecano's last 5 produced 15 goals — 3.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Athletic Bilbao's 5 produced 6, at 1.2 per game.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 229 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Athletic Bilbao: DWDDW
Rayo Vallecano: DDWLW
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 229 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 10Games
- 2.10Avg goals
- 40%Both scored
- 40%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–2 |
| 2024-05-25 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–1 |
| 2023-12-02 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–0 |
| 2022-09-17 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–2 |
| 2022-01-23 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Tofiko's model favours Athletic Bilbao (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
- Sun, 30 May 2027 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 2.10 goals per game.