Atletico Madridvs
Athletic BilbaoAtletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, H2H & Form
La LigaSun, 23 May 2027 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
Atletico Madrid to win57%
1X2: model backs Atletico Madrid at 57%.
- Atletico Madrid
- Draw
- Athletic Bilbao
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
More markets
Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Atletico Madrid or draw85%
- Draw or Athletic Bilbao43%
- Atletico Madrid or Athletic Bilbao72%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.545%
- Under 2.555%
Both teams to score
- Atletico Madrid, last 10 home games5 of 10
- Athletic Bilbao, last 10 away games2 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (380 games)56%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Atletico Madrid, rating it at 56.9% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Atletico Madrid won 6 of 10. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
They arrive from very different football. Atletico Madrid's last 5 produced 15 goals — 3.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 2. Athletic Bilbao's 5 produced 6, at 1.2 per game.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 221 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Atletico Madrid: WWWWW
Athletic Bilbao: DWDDW
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 221 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 10Games
- 2.10Avg goals
- 20%Both scored
- 30%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 3–2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 1–0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 3–1 |
| 2023-12-16 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
| 2022-10-15 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2022-04-30 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?
- Tofiko's model favours Atletico Madrid (57% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao kick off?
- Sun, 23 May 2027 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 8 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.10 goals per game.