Athletic Bilbaovs
Atletico MadridAthletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H & Stats
La LigaSat, 05 Sep 2026 14:15 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Atletico Madrid41%
- Athletic Bilbao 27%
- Draw 32%
- Atletico Madrid 41%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Atletico Madrid, rating it at 41.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Athletic Bilbao won 3 of 10, with 1 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Athletic Bilbao's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Athletic Bilbao: WWDWW
Atletico Madrid: LWLWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 1.80Avg goals
- 20%Both scored
- 20%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 3–2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 1–0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 3–1 |
| 2023-12-16 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
| 2022-10-15 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2022-04-30 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
| 2021-09-18 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?
- Tofiko's model favours Atletico Madrid (41% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 14:15 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 7 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 1.80 goals per game.