Athletic Bilbaovs
Atletico MadridAthletic Bilbao 3-0 Atletico Madrid — Result, H2H & Form
La LigaSat, 05 Sep 2026 14:15 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Atletico Madrid43%
- Athletic Bilbao 31%
- Draw 25%
- Atletico Madrid 43%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Atletico Madrid, rating it at 43.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Athletic Bilbao won 4 of 10. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 25.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 15 Sep 2026.
Athletic Bilbao: DWWLL
Atletico Madrid: WLLWD
Head-to-head
As of 15 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 2.10Avg goals
- 20%Both scored
- 30%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 3–2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 1–0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 3–1 |
| 2023-12-16 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
| 2022-10-15 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2022-04-30 | Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?
- Tofiko's model favours Atletico Madrid (43% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 14:15 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 8 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.10 goals per game.