Atletico Madridvs
Rayo VallecanoAtletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, H2H & Form
La LigaSun, 16 May 2027 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
Atletico Madrid to win63%
1X2: model backs Atletico Madrid at 63%.
- Atletico Madrid
- Draw
- Rayo Vallecano
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Atletico Madrid or draw87%
- Draw or Rayo Vallecano37%
- Atletico Madrid or Rayo Vallecano76%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.547%
- Under 2.553%
Both teams to score
- Atletico Madrid, last 10 home games5 of 10
- Rayo Vallecano, last 10 away games8 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (380 games)56%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Atletico Madrid, rating it at 62.9% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Atletico Madrid won 7 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 214 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Atletico Madrid: WWWWW
Rayo Vallecano: DDWLW
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 214 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 10Games
- 3.10Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–2 |
| 2025-04-24 | Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid | 1–1 |
| 2024-01-31 | Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 |
| 2023-08-28 | Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid | 0–7 |
| 2023-04-09 | Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid | 1–2 |
| 2022-10-18 | Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 |
| 2022-03-19 | Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 |
| 2022-01-02 | Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Tofiko's model favours Atletico Madrid (63% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
- Sun, 16 May 2027 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 2 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.10 goals per game.