ES Troyes ACvs
Olympique de MarseilleES Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille Prediction, H2H & Stats
Ligue 1Sat, 10 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Olympique de Marseille62%
- ES Troyes AC 14%
- Draw 23%
- Olympique de Marseille 62%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Olympique de Marseille, rating it at 62.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and ES Troyes AC won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 62.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 23.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 4 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
ES Troyes AC: WWWWL
Olympique de Marseille: WLWWW
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 2.25Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 25%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-16 | Marseille vs ESTAC Troyes | 3–1 |
| 2023-01-11 | ESTAC Troyes vs Marseille | 0–2 |
| 2022-02-27 | ESTAC Troyes vs Marseille | 1–1 |
| 2021-11-28 | Marseille vs ESTAC Troyes | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win ES Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille?
- Tofiko's model favours Olympique de Marseille (62% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does ES Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — Ligue 1.
- What is the ES Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.25 goals per game.