AS Monaco FCvs
Toulouse FCAS Monaco FC vs Toulouse FC Prediction, H2H & Stats
Ligue 1Sat, 10 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs AS Monaco FC58%
- AS Monaco FC 58%
- Draw 25%
- Toulouse FC 17%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick AS Monaco FC, rating it at 58.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and AS Monaco FC won 2 of 8, with 2 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. AS Monaco FC's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 3 of them and conceded in 5. Toulouse FC's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- AS Monaco FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
AS Monaco FC: DLWLL
Toulouse FC: WDDDW
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 63%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toulouse FC vs AS Monaco FC | 2–2 |
| 2025-10-25 | AS Monaco FC vs Toulouse FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Toulouse FC vs AS Monaco FC | 1–1 |
| 2024-12-07 | AS Monaco FC vs Toulouse FC | 2–0 |
| 2024-02-18 | AS Monaco vs Toulouse | 1–2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Toulouse vs AS Monaco | 1–2 |
| 2023-06-03 | AS Monaco vs Toulouse | 1–2 |
| 2022-11-06 | Toulouse vs AS Monaco | 0–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win AS Monaco FC vs Toulouse FC?
- Tofiko's model favours AS Monaco FC (58% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does AS Monaco FC vs Toulouse FC kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — Ligue 1.
- What is the AS Monaco FC vs Toulouse FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 2 home wins, 2 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.