Paris Saint-Germain FCvs
AS Monaco FCParis Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FC Prediction, H2H & Stats
Ligue 1Fri, 04 Sep 2026 18:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Paris Saint-Germain FC67%
- Paris Saint-Germain FC 67%
- Draw 21%
- AS Monaco FC 13%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Paris Saint-Germain FC, rating it at 66.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Paris Saint-Germain FC won 2 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. AS Monaco FC's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Paris Saint-Germain FC's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 20.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- AS Monaco FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain FC: LDLWW
AS Monaco FC: WDLWL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.40Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FC | 1–3 |
| 2025-11-29 | AS Monaco FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-02-07 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FC | 4–1 |
| 2024-12-18 | AS Monaco FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC | 2–4 |
| 2024-03-01 | AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–0 |
| 2023-11-24 | Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco | 5–2 |
| 2023-02-11 | AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain | 3–1 |
| 2022-08-28 | Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco | 1–1 |
| 2022-03-20 | AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain | 3–0 |
| 2021-12-12 | Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Paris Saint-Germain FC (67% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FC kick off?
- Fri, 04 Sep 2026 18:45 GMT — Ligue 1.
- What is the Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 6 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.40 goals per game.