Austin FCvs
FC DallasAustin FC 1-2 FC Dallas — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerMon, 17 Aug 2026 00:40 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Austin FC39%
- Austin FC 39%
- Draw 25%
- FC Dallas 36%
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Create a free accountModel families: split (goals models vs Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Austin FC, rating it at 38.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Austin FC won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 38.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. FC Dallas's last 5 produced 28 goals — 5.6 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Austin FC's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- FC Dallas's games are very high-scoring at 5.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Austin FC: DDWLD
FC Dallas: WWDLW
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Austin FC vs FC Dallas | 1–2 |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Dallas vs Austin FC | 2–0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Austin FC vs FC Dallas | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Austin FC vs FC Dallas?
- Tofiko's model favours Austin FC (39% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Austin FC vs FC Dallas kick off?
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:40 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Austin FC vs FC Dallas head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.