Chicago Firevs
New York City FCChicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSat, 10 Oct 2026 18:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire50%
- Chicago Fire 50%
- Draw 22%
- New York City FC 28%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 49.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Chicago Fire won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 49.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Chicago Fire: LLWWW
New York City FC: DWWLL
Head-to-head
- 3Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | New York City FC vs Chicago Fire | 3–1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Chicago Fire vs New York City FC | 1–3 |
| 2025-05-25 | New York City FC vs Chicago Fire | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (50% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs New York City FC kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 18:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs New York City FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.