Chicago Firevs
New York City FCChicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSat, 10 Oct 2026 18:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire50%
- Chicago Fire 50%
- Draw 22%
- New York City FC 28%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 49.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Chicago Fire won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 49.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 23 Aug 2026. Kickoff is still 48 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Chicago Fire: DWWWW
New York City FC: LLLLW
Head-to-head
As of 23 Aug 2026. Kickoff is still 48 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 3Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | New York City FC vs Chicago Fire | 3–1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Chicago Fire vs New York City FC | 1–3 |
| 2025-05-25 | New York City FC vs Chicago Fire | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (50% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs New York City FC kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 18:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs New York City FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.