Austin FCvs
Philadelphia UnionAustin FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSun, 23 Aug 2026 00:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union45%
- Austin FC 30%
- Draw 25%
- Philadelphia Union 45%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Philadelphia Union, rating it at 45.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
They arrive from very different football. Philadelphia Union's last 5 produced 24 goals — 4.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Austin FC's 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Philadelphia Union's games are very high-scoring at 4.8 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Austin FC: LWLLL
Philadelphia Union: WWLDL
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (45% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.