Chicago Firevs
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerThu, 15 Oct 2026 00:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire46%
- Chicago Fire 46%
- Draw 22%
- Philadelphia Union 32%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 45.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Chicago Fire won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Philadelphia Union's games are very high-scoring at 4.8 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Chicago Fire: LLWWW
Philadelphia Union: WWLDL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire | 4–0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union | 0–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.