Philadelphia Unionvs
Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union 4-0 Chicago Fire — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sat, 23 Aug 2025 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union56%
- Philadelphia Union 56%
- Draw 22%
- Chicago Fire 23%
The de-vigged market number is a PRO feature — free to start, PRO unlocks it.
Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Philadelphia Union, rating it at 55.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Philadelphia Union won all of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 55.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 21.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
Philadelphia Union: WWWDD
Chicago Fire: DDDLD
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire | 4–0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union | 0–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (56% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire kick off?
- Sat, 23 Aug 2025 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.