Chicago Firevs
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerThu, 15 Oct 2026 00:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire46%
- Chicago Fire 46%
- Draw 22%
- Philadelphia Union 32%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 45.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Chicago Fire won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 23 Aug 2026. Kickoff is still 53 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Chicago Fire: DWWWW
Philadelphia Union: DDWLW
Head-to-head
As of 23 Aug 2026. Kickoff is still 53 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire | 4–0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union | 0–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.