New York City FCvs
Chicago FireNew York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSat, 25 Jul 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs New York City FC46%
- New York City FC 46%
- Draw 22%
- Chicago Fire 32%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick New York City FC, rating it at 45.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and New York City FC won all of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.5% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Chicago Fire's last 5 produced 19 goals — 3.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. New York City FC's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 22.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
New York City FC: LDDDL
Chicago Fire: DDDLD
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | New York City FC vs Chicago Fire | 3–1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Chicago Fire vs New York City FC | 1–3 |
| 2025-05-25 | New York City FC vs Chicago Fire | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Tofiko's model favours New York City FC (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does New York City FC vs Chicago Fire kick off?
- Sat, 25 Jul 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York City FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.