Portland Timbersvs
Minnesota United FCPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSun, 06 Sep 2026 02:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Portland Timbers47%
- Portland Timbers 47%
- Draw 23%
- Minnesota United FC 30%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Portland Timbers, rating it at 46.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Portland Timbers won 1 of 4, with 2 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 46.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 23.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Minnesota United FC's games are very high-scoring at 5.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Portland Timbers: DWLDW
Minnesota United FC: LLDWL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 3.75Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 25%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC | 5–4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Minnesota United FC vs Portland Timbers | 2–0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Minnesota United FC vs Portland Timbers | 1–1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Portland Timbers (47% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC kick off?
- Sun, 06 Sep 2026 02:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.75 goals per game.