Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Minnesota United FCSporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerThu, 23 Jul 2026 00:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Minnesota United FC53%
- Sporting Kansas City 25%
- Draw 22%
- Minnesota United FC 53%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Minnesota United FC, rating it at 53.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Sporting Kansas City won 1 of 3, with 1 drawn. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 53.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Minnesota United FC's last 5 produced 27 goals — 5.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. Sporting Kansas City's 5 produced 17, at 3.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Minnesota United FC's games are very high-scoring at 5.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Sporting Kansas City: LLLDL
Minnesota United FC: LLDWL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC | 3–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Minnesota United FC (53% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC kick off?
- Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.