Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Philadelphia UnionSporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSun, 20 Sep 2026 00:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union54%
- Sporting Kansas City 25%
- Draw 21%
- Philadelphia Union 54%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Philadelphia Union, rating it at 53.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The model puts the draw at 21.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Philadelphia Union's games are very high-scoring at 4.8 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Sporting Kansas City: LWLLW
Philadelphia Union: WWLDL
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.