Toronto FCvs
Atlanta United FCToronto FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sat, 12 Jul 2025 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Toronto FC52%
- Toronto FC 52%
- Draw 26%
- Atlanta United FC 22%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Toronto FC, rating it at 52.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Toronto FC won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 52.1% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- Toronto FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
Toronto FC: WDDWD
Atlanta United FC: LDLWW
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 1.67Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC | 1–2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC | 0–0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Toronto FC (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC kick off?
- Sat, 12 Jul 2025 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 0 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 1.67 goals per game.