Arsenal F.C.vs
Manchester United F.C.Arsenal F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 19 Dec 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Arsenal F.C.61%
- Arsenal F.C. 61%
- Draw 25%
- Manchester United F.C. 14%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Arsenal F.C., rating it at 61.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Arsenal F.C. won 2 of 10, with 1 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 24.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Arsenal F.C.: WDWWW
Manchester United F.C.: WWLWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.30Avg goals
- 70%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Arsenal F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. | 2–3 |
| 2025-08-17 | Manchester United F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 0–1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Manchester United F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2024-12-04 | Arsenal F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2024-05-12 | Manchester United vs Arsenal | 0–1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Arsenal vs Manchester United | 3–1 |
| 2023-01-22 | Arsenal vs Manchester United | 3–2 |
| 2022-09-04 | Manchester United vs Arsenal | 3–1 |
| 2022-04-23 | Arsenal vs Manchester United | 3–1 |
| 2021-12-02 | Manchester United vs Arsenal | 3–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Arsenal F.C. vs Manchester United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Arsenal F.C. (61% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Arsenal F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 19 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Arsenal F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 6 home wins, 1 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.30 goals per game.