Southampton F.C.vs
Arsenal F.C.Southampton F.C. 1-2 Arsenal F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier League 2024-2025Sun, 25 May 2025 15:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Arsenal F.C.72%
- Southampton F.C. 9%
- Draw 19%
- Arsenal F.C. 72%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Arsenal F.C., rating it at 72.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Southampton F.C. won none of them. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 18.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Southampton F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Southampton F.C.: DWLWL
Arsenal F.C.: WWWDD
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 8Games
- 3.13Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 63%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-25 | Southampton F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 1–2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Arsenal F.C. vs Southampton F.C. | 3–1 |
| 2023-04-21 | Arsenal vs Southampton | 3–3 |
| 2022-10-23 | Southampton vs Arsenal | 1–1 |
| 2022-04-16 | Southampton vs Arsenal | 1–0 |
| 2021-12-11 | Arsenal vs Southampton | 3–0 |
| 2021-01-26 | Southampton vs Arsenal | 1–3 |
| 2020-12-16 | Arsenal vs Southampton | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Southampton F.C. vs Arsenal F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Arsenal F.C. (72% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Southampton F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. kick off?
- Sun, 25 May 2025 15:00 GMT — English Premier League 2024-2025.
- What is the Southampton F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 3 home wins, 3 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.13 goals per game.