Newcastle United F.C.vs
Aston Villa F.C.Newcastle United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
English Premier LeagueSat, 17 Oct 2026 16:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
Newcastle United F.C. or draw69%
1X2: model backs Newcastle United F.C. at 45% — under 50%, so the pick covers the draw too.
- Newcastle United F.C.
- Draw
- Aston Villa F.C.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Newcastle United F.C. or draw69%
- Draw or Aston Villa F.C.55%
- Newcastle United F.C. or Aston Villa F.C.77%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.557%
- Under 2.543%
Both teams to score
- Newcastle United F.C., last 10 home games9 of 10
- Aston Villa F.C., last 10 away games8 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (370 games)56%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Newcastle United F.C., rating it at 45.3% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Newcastle United F.C. won 1 of 10, with 1 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
What to keep in mind
- Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
- Aston Villa F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 13 Oct 2026.
Newcastle United F.C.: LWLWD
Aston Villa F.C.: DWWWL
Head-to-head
As of 13 Oct 2026.
- 10Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 30%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Newcastle United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C. | 0–2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Aston Villa F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. | 0–0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Aston Villa F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. | 4–1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Newcastle United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C. | 3–0 |
| 2024-01-30 | Aston Villa vs Newcastle | 1–3 |
| 2023-08-12 | Newcastle vs Aston Villa | 5–1 |
| 2023-04-15 | Aston Villa vs Newcastle | 3–0 |
| 2022-10-29 | Newcastle vs Aston Villa | 4–0 |
| 2022-02-13 | Newcastle vs Aston Villa | 1–0 |
| 2021-08-21 | Aston Villa vs Newcastle | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Newcastle United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Newcastle United F.C. (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Newcastle United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 16:30 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Newcastle United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 7 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.