Everton F.C.vs
Chelsea F.C.Everton F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
English Premier LeagueSat, 17 Oct 2026 11:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chelsea F.C.40%
- Everton F.C.
- Draw
- Chelsea F.C.
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Everton F.C. or draw60%
- Draw or Chelsea F.C.65%
- Everton F.C. or Chelsea F.C.75%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.544%
- Under 2.556%
Both teams to score
- Everton F.C., last 10 home games5 of 10
- Chelsea F.C., last 10 away games7 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (370 games)56%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Chelsea F.C., rating it at 39.6% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Everton F.C. won 1 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
They arrive from very different football. Chelsea F.C.'s last 5 produced 25 goals — 5.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Everton F.C.'s 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
- Chelsea F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 13 Oct 2026.
Everton F.C.: DWWDD
Chelsea F.C.: WLDWL
Head-to-head
As of 13 Oct 2026.
- 10Games
- 2.20Avg goals
- 20%Both scored
- 30%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Everton F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 3–0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Chelsea F.C. vs Everton F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Chelsea F.C. vs Everton F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2024-12-22 | Everton F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 0–0 |
| 2024-04-15 | Chelsea FC vs Everton | 6–0 |
| 2023-12-10 | Everton vs Chelsea FC | 2–0 |
| 2023-03-18 | Chelsea FC vs Everton | 2–2 |
| 2022-08-06 | Everton vs Chelsea FC | 0–1 |
| 2022-05-01 | Everton vs Chelsea FC | 1–0 |
| 2021-12-16 | Chelsea FC vs Everton | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Everton F.C. vs Chelsea F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Chelsea F.C. (40% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Everton F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 11:30 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Everton F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 6 home wins, 3 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.20 goals per game.