Aston Villa F.C.vs
Leeds United F.C.Aston Villa F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 26 Dec 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Aston Villa F.C.60%
- Aston Villa F.C. 60%
- Draw 24%
- Leeds United F.C. 16%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Aston Villa F.C., rating it at 60.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Aston Villa F.C. won 1 of 8, with 3 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Aston Villa F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Leeds United F.C.'s 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Aston Villa F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Aston Villa F.C.: WLLWW
Leeds United F.C.: WLLWD
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 2.63Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 63%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Aston Villa F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Leeds United F.C. vs Aston Villa F.C. | 1–2 |
| 2023-01-13 | Aston Villa vs Leeds United | 2–1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Leeds United vs Aston Villa | 0–0 |
| 2022-03-10 | Leeds United vs Aston Villa | 0–3 |
| 2022-02-09 | Aston Villa vs Leeds United | 3–3 |
| 2021-02-27 | Leeds United vs Aston Villa | 0–1 |
| 2020-10-23 | Aston Villa vs Leeds United | 0–3 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Aston Villa F.C. vs Leeds United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Aston Villa F.C. (60% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Aston Villa F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 26 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Aston Villa F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 1 home wins, 3 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 2.63 goals per game.