Chelsea F.C.vs
Arsenal F.C.Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
English Premier LeagueSat, 13 Mar 2027 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
Arsenal F.C. or draw76%
1X2: model backs Arsenal F.C. at 46% — under 50%, so the pick covers the draw too.
- Chelsea F.C.
- Draw
- Arsenal F.C.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Chelsea F.C. or draw54%
- Draw or Arsenal F.C.76%
- Chelsea F.C. or Arsenal F.C.70%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.549%
- Under 2.551%
Both teams to score
- Chelsea F.C., last 10 home games7 of 10
- Arsenal F.C., last 10 away games5 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (370 games)56%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Arsenal F.C., rating it at 46.1% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Chelsea F.C. won none of them. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
They arrive from very different football. Chelsea F.C.'s last 5 produced 25 goals — 5.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Arsenal F.C.'s 5 produced 17, at 3.4 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Chelsea F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 150 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Chelsea F.C.: WLDWL
Arsenal F.C.: WWLWW
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 150 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 10Games
- 3.10Avg goals
- 70%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2024-04-23 | Arsenal vs Chelsea FC | 5–0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Chelsea FC vs Arsenal | 2–2 |
| 2023-05-02 | Arsenal vs Chelsea FC | 3–1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Chelsea FC vs Arsenal | 0–1 |
| 2022-04-20 | Chelsea FC vs Arsenal | 2–4 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Arsenal F.C. (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 13 Mar 2027 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 3 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.10 goals per game.