Arsenal F.C.vs
Chelsea F.C.Arsenal F.C. 2-1 Chelsea F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier LeagueSun, 06 Sep 2026 15:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Arsenal F.C.59%
- Arsenal F.C. 59%
- Draw 23%
- Chelsea F.C. 18%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Arsenal F.C., rating it at 59.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Arsenal F.C. won 3 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Chelsea F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Arsenal F.C.'s 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 22.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Chelsea F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 9 Sep 2026.
Arsenal F.C.: WWWWD
Chelsea F.C.: LWWWW
Head-to-head
As of 9 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 3.10Avg goals
- 70%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Chelsea F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2024-04-23 | Arsenal vs Chelsea FC | 5–0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Chelsea FC vs Arsenal | 2–2 |
| 2023-05-02 | Arsenal vs Chelsea FC | 3–1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Chelsea FC vs Arsenal | 0–1 |
| 2022-04-20 | Chelsea FC vs Arsenal | 2–4 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Arsenal F.C. (59% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. kick off?
- Sun, 06 Sep 2026 15:30 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Arsenal F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 3 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.10 goals per game.