Chelsea F.C.vs
Burnley F.C.Chelsea F.C. vs Burnley F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 21 Feb 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: finished
Final: Chelsea F.C. 1–1 Burnley F.C.
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chelsea F.C.70%
- Chelsea F.C. 70%
- Draw 20%
- Burnley F.C. 11%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Chelsea F.C., rating it at 69.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Chelsea F.C. won 1 of 8, with 3 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 19.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Chelsea F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Chelsea F.C.: LWLWL
Burnley F.C.: DLLDL
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Chelsea F.C. vs Burnley F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Burnley F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 0–2 |
| 2024-03-30 | Chelsea FC vs Burnley | 2–2 |
| 2023-10-07 | Burnley vs Chelsea FC | 1–4 |
| 2022-03-05 | Burnley vs Chelsea FC | 0–4 |
| 2021-11-06 | Chelsea FC vs Burnley | 1–1 |
| 2021-01-31 | Chelsea FC vs Burnley | 2–0 |
| 2020-10-31 | Burnley vs Chelsea FC | 0–3 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chelsea F.C. vs Burnley F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Chelsea F.C. (70% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chelsea F.C. vs Burnley F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 21 Feb 2026 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Chelsea F.C. vs Burnley F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 1 home wins, 3 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.