Liverpool F.C.vs
Leeds United F.C.Liverpool F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
English Premier LeagueSat, 12 Dec 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Liverpool F.C.71%
- Liverpool F.C. 71%
- Draw 18%
- Leeds United F.C. 11%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Liverpool F.C., rating it at 71.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 9 times, and Liverpool F.C. won none of them. Across 9 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Liverpool F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Leeds United F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 17.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Liverpool F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026. Kickoff is still 102 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Liverpool F.C.: DDWLL
Leeds United F.C.: DWWWD
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026. Kickoff is still 102 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 9Games
- 4.44Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 78%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Liverpool F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. | 2–4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Liverpool F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. | 0–0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Leeds United F.C. vs Liverpool F.C. | 3–3 |
| 2023-04-17 | Leeds United vs Liverpool | 1–6 |
| 2022-10-29 | Liverpool vs Leeds United | 1–2 |
| 2022-02-23 | Liverpool vs Leeds United | 6–0 |
| 2021-09-12 | Leeds United vs Liverpool | 0–3 |
| 2021-04-19 | Leeds United vs Liverpool | 1–1 |
| 2020-09-12 | Liverpool vs Leeds United | 4–3 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Liverpool F.C. vs Leeds United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Liverpool F.C. (71% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Liverpool F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 12 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Liverpool F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 9 meetings: 2 home wins, 3 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 4.44 goals per game.