FC Aroucavs
CD NacionalFC Arouca vs CD Nacional Prediction, H2H & Form
Primeira LigaSun, 01 Nov 2026 15:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
FC Arouca to win60%
1X2: model backs FC Arouca at 60%.
- FC Arouca
- Draw
- CD Nacional
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
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More markets
Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- FC Arouca or draw84%
- Draw or CD Nacional40%
- FC Arouca or CD Nacional75%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.546%
- Under 2.554%
Both teams to score
- FC Arouca, last 10 home games6 of 10
- CD Nacional, last 10 away games3 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (304 games)49%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 59.7% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC Arouca won all of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. CD Nacional's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 3 of them and conceded in 5. FC Arouca's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
What to keep in mind
- CD Nacional's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 12 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 21 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
FC Arouca: WDLDW
CD Nacional: LLLLL
Head-to-head
As of 12 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 21 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Arouca vs CD Nacional | 3–0 |
| 2025-09-20 | CD Nacional vs FC Arouca | 1–2 |
| 2025-02-01 | CD Nacional vs FC Arouca | 1–2 |
| 2024-08-25 | FC Arouca vs CD Nacional | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (60% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs CD Nacional kick off?
- Sun, 01 Nov 2026 15:30 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs CD Nacional head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.