FC Aroucavs
CD NacionalFC Arouca vs CD Nacional Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 01 Nov 2026 15:59 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Arouca60%
- FC Arouca 60%
- Draw 25%
- CD Nacional 16%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 59.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC Arouca won all of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 59.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 24.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Arouca: WLDDL
CD Nacional: LLDDD
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Arouca vs CD Nacional | 3–0 |
| 2025-09-20 | CD Nacional vs FC Arouca | 1–2 |
| 2025-02-01 | CD Nacional vs FC Arouca | 1–2 |
| 2024-08-25 | FC Arouca vs CD Nacional | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (60% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs CD Nacional kick off?
- Sun, 01 Nov 2026 15:59 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs CD Nacional head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.