CD Nacionalvs
FC AroucaCD Nacional vs FC Arouca Prediction, H2H & Form
Primeira LigaSun, 21 Mar 2027 16:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
CD Nacional or draw64%
1X2: model backs CD Nacional at 37% — under 50%, so the pick covers the draw too.
- CD Nacional
- Draw
- FC Arouca
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
More markets
Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- CD Nacional or draw64%
- Draw or FC Arouca63%
- CD Nacional or FC Arouca72%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.545%
- Under 2.555%
Both teams to score
- CD Nacional, last 10 home games5 of 10
- FC Arouca, last 10 away games3 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (304 games)49%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick CD Nacional, rating it at 36.5% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and CD Nacional won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. CD Nacional's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 3 of them and conceded in 5. FC Arouca's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 4 games, no win for the side we back.
- CD Nacional's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 12 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 161 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
CD Nacional: LLLLL
FC Arouca: WDLDW
Head-to-head
As of 12 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 161 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Arouca vs CD Nacional | 3–0 |
| 2025-09-20 | CD Nacional vs FC Arouca | 1–2 |
| 2025-02-01 | CD Nacional vs FC Arouca | 1–2 |
| 2024-08-25 | FC Arouca vs CD Nacional | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win CD Nacional vs FC Arouca?
- Tofiko's model favours CD Nacional (37% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does CD Nacional vs FC Arouca kick off?
- Sun, 21 Mar 2027 16:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the CD Nacional vs FC Arouca head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.