C.D. Tondelavs
Rio Ave F.C.C.D. Tondela vs Rio Ave F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaMon, 09 Mar 2026 20:15 GMTStatus: finished
Final: C.D. Tondela 0–1 Rio Ave F.C.
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Rio Ave F.C.39%
- C.D. Tondela 36%
- Draw 25%
- Rio Ave F.C. 39%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Rio Ave F.C., rating it at 38.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 5 times, and C.D. Tondela won none of them. Across 5 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Rio Ave F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. C.D. Tondela's 5 produced 13, at 2.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Rio Ave F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
C.D. Tondela: LDLLW
Rio Ave F.C.: WWDWW
Head-to-head
- 5Games
- 2.60Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Rio Ave F.C. vs C.D. Tondela | 3–1 |
| 2026-03-09 | C.D. Tondela vs Rio Ave F.C. | 0–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Rio Ave F.C. vs C.D. Tondela | 3–0 |
| 2021-02-09 | Rio Ave vs Desportivo de Tondela | 2–1 |
| 2020-09-20 | Desportivo de Tondela vs Rio Ave | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win C.D. Tondela vs Rio Ave F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Rio Ave F.C. (39% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does C.D. Tondela vs Rio Ave F.C. kick off?
- Mon, 09 Mar 2026 20:15 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the C.D. Tondela vs Rio Ave F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 5 meetings: 3 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.60 goals per game.