SL Benficavs
Vitoria GuimaraesSL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs SL Benfica76%
- SL Benfica 76%
- Draw 18%
- Vitoria Guimaraes 6%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick SL Benfica, rating it at 76.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and SL Benfica won 7 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. SL Benfica's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. Vitoria Guimaraes's 5 produced 15, at 3.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 18.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- SL Benfica's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
SL Benfica: WWWLW
Vitoria Guimaraes: WDWWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.30Avg goals
- 30%Both scored
- 80%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs SL Benfica | 0–3 |
| 2025-04-19 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs SL Benfica | 0–3 |
| 2024-12-07 | SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs SL Benfica | 2–2 |
| 2023-09-02 | SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 4–0 |
| 2023-03-18 | SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 5–1 |
| 2022-10-01 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs SL Benfica | 0–0 |
| 2022-02-27 | SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–0 |
| 2021-10-27 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs SL Benfica | 3–3 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
- Tofiko's model favours SL Benfica (76% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 3 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.30 goals per game.