FC Schalke 04vs
1.FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 17 Oct 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs 1.FSV Mainz 0555%
- FC Schalke 04 20%
- Draw 25%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 55%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick 1.FSV Mainz 05, rating it at 55.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC Schalke 04 won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 55.0% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 4 games, no win for the side we back.
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Schalke 04: WWWWL
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWW
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-05 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 | 2–3 |
| 2022-11-09 | Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–0 |
| 2021-03-05 | Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–0 |
| 2020-11-07 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 | 2–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours 1.FSV Mainz 05 (55% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.