FC Schalke 04vs
1.FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, H2H & Form
German BundesligaSat, 17 Oct 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
1.FSV Mainz 05 or draw73%
1X2: model backs 1.FSV Mainz 05 at 49% — under 50%, so the pick covers the draw too.
- FC Schalke 04
- Draw
- 1.FSV Mainz 05
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
More markets
Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- FC Schalke 04 or draw51%
- Draw or 1.FSV Mainz 0573%
- FC Schalke 04 or 1.FSV Mainz 0577%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.550%
- Under 2.550%
Both teams to score
- FC Schalke 04, last 10 home games2 of 10
- 1.FSV Mainz 05, last 10 away games4 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (297 games)63%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick 1.FSV Mainz 05, rating it at 49.4% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC Schalke 04 won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. 1.FSV Mainz 05's last 5 produced 26 goals — 5.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. FC Schalke 04's 5 produced 15, at 3.0 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 4 games, no win for the side we back.
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 5.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 12 Oct 2026.
FC Schalke 04: LWWDW
1.FSV Mainz 05: LWWLW
Head-to-head
As of 12 Oct 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-05 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 | 2–3 |
| 2022-11-09 | Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–0 |
| 2021-03-05 | Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–0 |
| 2020-11-07 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 | 2–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours 1.FSV Mainz 05 (49% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the FC Schalke 04 vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.