Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
SC FreiburgBayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 17 Oct 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen63%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 63%
- Draw 23%
- SC Freiburg 14%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen, rating it at 63.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 22.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WWWWD
SC Freiburg: LWLWL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.90Avg goals
- 90%Both scored
- 80%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3–3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 2–0 |
| 2025-05-04 | SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2–2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 5–1 |
| 2024-03-17 | SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–3 |
| 2023-10-29 | Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 2–1 |
| 2023-02-26 | SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 |
| 2022-09-03 | Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 2–3 |
| 2022-05-14 | Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 2–1 |
| 2021-12-19 | SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
- Tofiko's model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (63% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 3 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.90 goals per game.