FC St. Paulivs
FC Bayern MunichFC St. Pauli vs FC Bayern Munich Prediction, H2H & Stats
German Bundesliga 2025-2026Sat, 11 Apr 2026 16:30 GMTStatus: finished
Final: FC St. Pauli 0–5 FC Bayern Munich
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Bayern Munich71%
- FC St. Pauli 10%
- Draw 18%
- FC Bayern Munich 71%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Bayern Munich, rating it at 71.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC St. Pauli won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 71.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 18.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- FC St. Pauli's games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC St. Pauli: DLWWW
FC Bayern Munich: LWWWD
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 3.75Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | FC St. Pauli vs FC Bayern Munich | 0–5 |
| 2025-11-29 | FC Bayern Munich vs FC St. Pauli | 3–1 |
| 2025-03-29 | FC Bayern Munich vs FC St. Pauli | 3–2 |
| 2024-11-09 | FC St. Pauli vs FC Bayern Munich | 0–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC St. Pauli vs FC Bayern Munich?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Bayern Munich (71% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC St. Pauli vs FC Bayern Munich kick off?
- Sat, 11 Apr 2026 16:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2025-2026.
- What is the FC St. Pauli vs FC Bayern Munich head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.75 goals per game.