FC St. Paulivs
SC FreiburgFC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg Prediction, H2H & Stats
German Bundesliga 2025-2026Sun, 22 Mar 2026 16:30 GMTStatus: finished
Final: FC St. Pauli 1–2 SC Freiburg
Tofiko prediction
Model backs SC Freiburg41%
- FC St. Pauli 31%
- Draw 27%
- SC Freiburg 41%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick SC Freiburg, rating it at 41.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC St. Pauli won 1 of 4. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 41.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- FC St. Pauli's games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC St. Pauli: DLWWW
SC Freiburg: LWLWL
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg | 1–2 |
| 2025-11-09 | SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli | 2–1 |
| 2025-02-15 | FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg | 0–1 |
| 2024-09-28 | SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli | 0–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
- Tofiko's model favours SC Freiburg (41% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg kick off?
- Sun, 22 Mar 2026 16:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2025-2026.
- What is the FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.