VfL Bochumvs
1.FSV Mainz 05VfL Bochum 1-4 1.FSV Mainz 05 — Result, H2H & Form
German Bundesliga 2024-2025Sat, 10 May 2025 13:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs 1.FSV Mainz 0546%
- VfL Bochum 30%
- Draw 24%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 46%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick 1.FSV Mainz 05, rating it at 46.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and VfL Bochum won 1 of 8, with 1 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. 1.FSV Mainz 05's last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 2. VfL Bochum's 5 produced 6, at 1.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
VfL Bochum: LWWLD
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWD
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 8Games
- 3.25Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–4 |
| 2025-01-11 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Bochum | 2–0 |
| 2024-03-16 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Bochum | 2–0 |
| 2023-10-27 | VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2–2 |
| 2023-01-28 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Bochum | 5–2 |
| 2022-08-06 | VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–2 |
| 2022-01-15 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Bochum | 1–0 |
| 2021-08-21 | VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours 1.FSV Mainz 05 (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sat, 10 May 2025 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2024-2025.
- What is the VfL Bochum vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 5 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.25 goals per game.