RB Leipzigvs
1.FSV Mainz 05RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 05 Dec 2026 14:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs RB Leipzig62%
- RB Leipzig 62%
- Draw 24%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 14%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick RB Leipzig, rating it at 61.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and RB Leipzig won 3 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. 1.FSV Mainz 05's last 5 produced 25 goals — 5.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 2. RB Leipzig's 5 produced 16, at 3.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
RB Leipzig: WWLLW
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.20Avg goals
- 40%Both scored
- 40%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–2 |
| 2025-09-13 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | 0–1 |
| 2025-03-01 | RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–2 |
| 2024-10-19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | 0–2 |
| 2024-03-30 | RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–0 |
| 2023-11-04 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | 2–0 |
| 2023-04-01 | RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–3 |
| 2022-10-08 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | 1–1 |
| 2022-01-08 | RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 4–1 |
| 2021-08-15 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours RB Leipzig (62% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sat, 05 Dec 2026 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the RB Leipzig vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 3 home wins, 2 draws, 5 away wins, averaging 2.20 goals per game.