SV Werder Bremen crestSV Werder BremenvsRB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig

SV Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig — Result, H2H & Form

German BundesligaSat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: finished

Tofiko prediction

Model backs RB Leipzig54%

  • SV Werder Bremen 24%
  • Draw 22%
  • RB Leipzig 54%
Market implied probability

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Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)

✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.

See today's picks

Analysis

Both model families pick RB Leipzig, rating it at 53.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.

The two have met 10 times, and SV Werder Bremen won 1 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.

They arrive from very different football. RB Leipzig's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 2. SV Werder Bremen's 5 produced 15, at 3.0 per game.

The model puts the draw at 22.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.

This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.

What to keep in mind

  • RB Leipzig's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
  • Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.

Recent form

As of 14 Sep 2026.

SV Werder Bremen: DWLWL

RB Leipzig: WLLWW

Head-to-head

As of 14 Sep 2026.

  • 10Games
  • 3.00Avg goals
  • 80%Both scored
  • 60%Over 2.5
DateMatchScore
2026-09-05SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig3–1
2026-04-04SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig1–2
2025-11-23RB Leipzig vs SV Werder Bremen2–0
2025-05-10SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig0–0
2025-01-12RB Leipzig vs SV Werder Bremen4–2
2024-05-11RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen1–1
2023-12-19Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig1–1
2023-05-14RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen2–1
2022-11-12Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig1–2
2021-04-10Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig1–4

See today's predictions across every covered league →

FAQ

Who will win SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Tofiko's model favours RB Leipzig (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
What time does SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
What is the SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig head-to-head record?
In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.

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Reverse fixtureRB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen30 Jan 2027 →